You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 324, on Friday, March 28th at 18:00 GMT / 14:00 EDT.
The highlighted topics will include:
Black Sea Diplomacy: Can US Mediate an End to the War?
Ukraine and the US held talks in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, focusing on protecting energy and critical infrastructure as part of diplomatic efforts to end the war. The discussions preceded a US-Russia meeting on Monday, where US envoy Steve Witkoff expressed optimism about progress toward a Black Sea ceasefire, which could lead to a broader truce. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that real peace depends on Russian President Vladimir Putin stopping attacks.
While a temporary 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure was agreed upon last week, violations continued, with Russian drone strikes killing civilians in Kyiv and Ukraine retaliating with drone attacks on Russian energy facilities. Talks in Riyadh concentrated on securing Black Sea shipping routes, reviving the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative and addressing Ukraine’s energy security. However, experts remain skeptical about meaningful progress due to deep mistrust between Moscow and Kyiv.
Trump’s outreach to Putin has raised concerns in Europe, with fears that Washington might prioritize its own geopolitical interests over Ukraine’s sovereignty. While the US aims to negotiate a full ceasefire by April 20, Russia’s demands remain firm - Ukraine must abandon NATO ambitions and withdraw from occupied regions. Ukraine, facing ongoing Russian advances in the east, insists that any peace deal must come with military and economic support.
Despite ongoing diplomacy, continued attacks underline the fragile state of negotiations. Both sides accuse each other of breaking agreements, casting doubt on the prospects of a lasting peace.
White House Scrambles to Contain Fallout from Signal Chat Leak
A serious security lapse occurred when Atlantic magazine editor Jeffrey Goldberg was inadvertently added to a Signal group chat used by top US officials to discuss national security matters, including planned airstrikes in Yemen. The chat included Vice President JD Vance, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, among others. Goldberg initially believed it was a hoax but confirmed the chat’s authenticity after witnessing the reported airstrike take place.
While intelligence chiefs and Trump administration officials have downplayed the incident, Democrats and some Republicans have called for investigations and accountability. At a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, Ratcliffe and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard denied that classified details were shared, despite Goldberg’s report that specifics on targets, weapons and timing were discussed. Senate Democrats criticized the officials for incompetence and demanded resignations, while Senate Republicans took a more cautious approach, emphasizing the need for further inquiry.
The violation has led to a lawsuit from the watchdog group American Oversight, arguing that using Signal - an app allowing message deletion - violates laws requiring government records to be preserved. The National Security Agency had previously warned employees about vulnerabilities in Signal, raising additional concerns about why high-ranking officials used a commercial app for sensitive discussions.
Trump has dismissed the controversy, defending Waltz and claiming the addition of Goldberg was a "glitch" caused by a staffer. However, national security experts warn that such lapses could expose critical US military operations to adversaries, emphasizing broader concerns about security protocols within the administration.
Trump Targets Venezuela and China with New Oil Tariff Policy
US President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela. The move, which he described as a punishment for Venezuela’s alleged actions against the US, adds to his broader trade policies targeting foreign markets. Trump claimed, without evidence, that Venezuela has been intentionally sending criminals to the US and justified the tariff as a measure against such hostility.
The announcement follows reports that Trump may delay other planned tariffs, including those on pharmaceuticals, cars and lumber. However, the 25% tariff on Venezuelan oil purchasers is set to take effect on April 2, the same day Trump has branded “liberation day,” when he plans to announce new trade policies. The tariffs would be in addition to existing levies on countries such as China, further escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Venezuela remains a key oil supplier, particularly to China, which imported 351,000 barrels per day in 2024, making it the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude. The US was the second-largest recipient due to a special license granted to Chevron, allowing limited oil imports despite sanctions. That license, initially set to expire on April 3, has now been extended to May 27.
China has strongly opposed Trump’s tariff threats, with its foreign ministry condemning US interference in Venezuela’s affairs. The proposed tariffs could increase costs for global markets, particularly affecting Chinese imports into the US, which already face a 20% tariff. If the new measure is enforced, Chinese goods could see tariffs as high as 45%, and steel and aluminum imports could be taxed at 70%.
Despite Trump’s aggressive stance, financial markets remained stable, with key US stock indexes closing higher after his announcement. However, his continued use of tariffs as a political and economic tool is likely to provoke further international disputes.
Darién Route Shuts Down: Migrants Forced Back Home Amid Crackdown
The US-backed crackdown on migration through the Darién Gap has forced thousands of South American migrants to return home, ending what many saw as their only path to the US. Under a $6 million agreement, Panama has deported hundreds of migrants from Colombia and Ecuador, while Venezuelans faced fewer restrictions. The closure of the CBP (Custom and Border Protection) One asylum app by the Trump administration further shut down opportunities for asylum seekers, leaving many stranded.
Adriangela Contreras, who carried her two-year-old daughter through the Darién Gap, made it to southern Mexico before realizing her journey was hopeless. With no way forward, she turned back. Similarly, Venezuelan migrant Oscar Ramírez sold his truck to finance his trip but was robbed in Mexico and later detained by US authorities before being deported.
The number of crossings through the jungle has dropped by 96% compared to last year, with many migrants now attempting the dangerous return journey. Panama has introduced a new repatriation route, sending migrants by boat back to Colombia. However, the journey remains hazardous - one vessel carrying migrants capsized in February, leading to the drowning of a nine-year-old Venezuelan girl.
Panama plans to close the Lajas Blancas migrant camp in the coming weeks, with new arrivals facing immediate deportation. The presidents of Panama and Colombia will meet on March 28 to discuss migration policies. For many, the dream of reaching the US has collapsed, leaving them trapped in foreign countries or struggling to return home.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.
