You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 321, on Friday, March 21st at 10:00 GMT
The highlighted topics will include:
Putin Rejects Full Ceasefire but Agrees to Limited Energy Truce Despite Ongoing Conflict
Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to a temporary 30-day halt on strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure but has rejected a broader ceasefire. The decision came after a nearly two-hour phone call with US President Donald Trump, who had pushed for a full 30-day truce as a step toward a permanent peace deal. While Ukraine has accepted the limited agreement, experts believe Putin may be stalling for time as Russian forces advance in the east.
The White House announced that discussions on a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, as well as broader negotiations for a lasting peace deal, would take place soon in Saudi Arabia. However, Ukraine’s involvement in these talks remains unclear. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy strongly criticized Putin’s refusal to commit to a full ceasefire and accused Russia of using the truce to regroup. He also highlighted that Russia launched more than 40 drones on Ukrainian territory the same night Putin made his pledge, hitting a hospital in Sumy and multiple energy facilities.
Despite the agreement, hostilities continued on both sides. Ukraine reported that Russian forces carried out extensive aerial strikes with drones, ballistic and anti- aircraft missiles, targeting key infrastructure. Meanwhile, Russia accused Ukraine of attacking an oil depot, claiming Kyiv had no real intention of pursuing peace. The Kremlin reiterated its demands that any long-term ceasefire must include an end to all Western military aid to Ukraine and a halt to Ukrainian mobilization.
European allies expressed concern over Washington’s approach, with officials warning that Putin might be using negotiations to strengthen Russia’s position without making significant concessions. Analysts noted that Trump’s proposals to Putin, while framed as peace efforts, could reinforce Moscow while failing to achieve meaningful progress. On the battlefield, Russian troops continued their offensive in eastern Ukraine, forcing Ukrainian forces into defensive positions.
Gaza Ceasefire Collapses: Hundreds Killed in Israeli Airstrikes as Conflict Resumes
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas collapsed as Israel launched its most extensive airstrikes on Gaza in over a year, killing more than 400 people, including 170 children, according to Palestinian health officials. The Israeli military stated the operation targeted Hamas leaders and infrastructure after accusing the group of refusing to release hostages and accept a US-backed truce extension. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the renewed offensive was "only the beginning", vowing to continue operations until Hamas was eliminated.
Hamas denied Israeli claims that it had violated the ceasefire, stating it had been in discussions to extend the truce. Hamas condemned the strikes, calling them a "death sentence" for Israeli hostages still in Gaza. Reports from hospitals and humanitarian workers described the devastation, with overwhelmed medical facilities and mass casualties. Residents spoke of entire families buried under rubble, and aid agencies warned of an escalating humanitarian crisis. As the conflict resumes, fears grow over further civilian casualties, mass displacement and the failure of diplomatic efforts.
International responses have been divided. The US blamed Hamas for the collapse of the ceasefire, stating it had refused multiple proposals, while Egypt and other mediators criticized Israel’s actions as a dangerous escalation. Meanwhile, protests erupted in Israel, with hostage families accusing Netanyahu's government of prioritizing military action over negotiations.
As the conflict resumes, Netanyahu has also expressed concerns over potential regional ramifications, particularly the risk of a larger war front opening in the West Bank. While Israel focuses on Gaza, Netanyahu acknowledged the possibility of a significant expansion of fighting in Judea and Samaria, stressing that the situation there is equally critical.
This comes amid reports of Israel's ongoing settlement expansion in the West Bank, with new housing units being built in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, further complicating the political landscape. The United Nations has condemned these actions, citing them as violations of international law, while fears of annexation and further escalation in the region continue to grow.
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu's Arrest Provokes Political Crisis and Nationwide Protests in Turkey
The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a leading rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has led to a major political crisis in Turkey. İmamoğlu was detained on charges of corruption and aiding a terrorist organization, just days before he was set to be named the opposition's presidential candidate. His arrest is seen by opposition figures as part of a broader crackdown aimed at silencing disapproval and suppressing competition ahead of future elections.
İmamoğlu, from the secular Republican People's Party (CHP), is a popular two- term mayor, and his detention has raised concerns about the increasing erosion of democracy in Turkey. His arrest, along with charges related to bribery and rigging tenders, comes after months of legal actions against opposition leaders. The move also coincided with a dramatic plunge in Turkey's lira, which fell to a record low against the dollar, reflecting growing uncertainty in the country.
Protests broke out across Turkey, including in Istanbul, with demonstrators chanting anti-government slogans and clashing with police. The government imposed restrictions on public gatherings, but opposition leaders continued to rally support for İmamoğlu’s release. The situation escalated after Istanbul University annulled his degree, which, if sustained, could prevent him from running in future presidential elections, as the Turkish constitution requires a higher education degree for candidates.
International condemnation followed, with the European Union, the US and Human Rights Watch criticizing the political motivations behind the arrest. Many see the move as an effort by Erdoğan’s government to eliminate a strong challenger ahead of the 2028 election. İmamoğlu’s party, the CHP, has vowed to continue his candidacy despite the arrest, and protests are likely to continue as tensions rise.
Poland, Baltics and Germany Strengthen Defense Posture as EU Plans Joint Military Initiatives
Poland and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have announced plans to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel landmines, citing the growing security threat from Russia and Belarus. In a joint statement, the defense ministers of these countries emphasized that the deteriorating security situation, particularly since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, necessitates greater flexibility in defense strategies to protect NATO’s eastern border. Although they plan to leave the treaty, they reaffirmed their commitment to international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians during conflict.
This decision reflects broader defense shifts in Europe, where Poland and the Baltics, which have significantly increased military spending and supported Ukraine, are reevaluating their security needs in the face of Russian aggression. Their withdrawal signals a readiness to use all necessary measures to defend their territory, a stadpoint intensified by the current geopolitical landscape.
Meanwhile, Germany has voted to approve a substantial defense spending increase, marking a significant shift from its traditionally cautious defense posture. The new law, which allows Germany to bypass debt rules for military spending, showcases the urgency to strengthen Europe’s defense capabilities in response to Russia’s actions and concerns over US commitment to NATO.
In addition, the EU is pushing for further defense integration through a new White Paper, which outlines plans to boost military spending, pool resources for joint defense projects and strengthen the European arms industry. This strategy is aimed at reducing Europe’s reliance on the US and addressing key capability gaps in defense infrastructure, air defense and cyber warfare, ensuring a more self- sufficient European defense posture by 2030.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.
